STORM OF PARADOXES – The Monty Hall Problem

2000px-Monty_open_door.svgDear readers, we are going to revisit with you today the famous Monty Hall Problem.

The latter can be compared to a brain teaser involving a probability puzzle. It is roughly based on the American television game show “Let’s Make a Deal”, and was named after its original host, Monty Hall.

After published in the “Ask Marilyn” column in Paradise magazine in 1990, this puzzle stirred up a lot of controversy at the time. In fact, nearly 10,000 readers and approximately 1,000 PhDs sent letters to the magazine holding extremely diverging views. Even one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, Paul Erdos, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation confirming the result.

You will find bellow the scenario, and next to it the poll to answer.  Stay tuned as this is just the introduction to our next posts on the Endowment Effectthe Status Quo Bias. Oh and the “answer” of course!

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, Do you want to pick door No. 2?

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Stay tuned dear Storm-Troopers !

(Yes, this is indeed the term we coined for our loyal readers… Oh and yes, we are Star Wars fans).


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